Wondering what the housing market may look like in 2026? You are not alone. Over the past few years, affordability has been the biggest challenge for buyers and sellers alike. Many homeowners postponed selling, and many buyers paused their plans, waiting for conditions to feel more manageable.
The encouraging news is that momentum is finally shifting. Affordability improved meaningfully in 2025, reaching its strongest point in three years. Most economists and housing analysts now agree that progress should continue through 2026. Their outlook is based on three core factors that shape affordability: mortgage rates, inventory, and home prices.
Mortgage Rates Are Settling Into a More Predictable Range
Mortgage rates have already moved down from their recent highs. Over the past year, average rates declined by close to a full percentage point. While that may sound modest, the impact on monthly payments and purchasing power is significant.
Looking ahead, major forecasters expect rates to remain relatively stable, hovering in the low 6 percent range throughout 2026. Projections from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and Wells Fargo all point to a similar outcome. Future movement will depend on broader economic conditions, employment trends, and any policy shifts from the Federal Reserve. The key takeaway is that rates are already lower than they were a year ago, creating a more favorable environment for those planning a move in 2026.
For buyers: Lower rates reduce monthly payments and stretch buying power, helping more households qualify for homes that previously felt out of reach.
For sellers: Rates in the 6 percent range are becoming the new normal. For homeowners with equity who need to make a move, today’s environment is workable with the right strategy.
Inventory Is Expanding and Creating More Choice
Housing supply made meaningful gains in 2025, with the number of homes for sale rising by roughly 15 percent nationwide. As inventory increased, buyers regained something they had been missing for years: options. More listings also meant more time to make decisions and greater room for negotiation.
These inventory gains have played an important role in slowing price acceleration, which directly supports affordability. While growth in supply is expected to moderate, Realtor.com forecasts that the number of homes for sale should still increase by nearly 9 percent in 2026.
For buyers: More inventory means more choice and improved negotiating leverage.
For sellers: Accurate pricing and strong presentation will be essential to attract serious buyers in a more balanced market.
Home Price Growth Is Returning to a Healthier Pace
With more homes available, upward pressure on prices has eased. Even so, most experts agree that home prices will continue to rise nationally, just at a slower and more sustainable pace. On average, forecasts project price growth of about 1.6 percent in 2026.
That outlook offers reassurance amid online speculation about major price declines. While conditions will vary by market, broad national data suggests stability rather than volatility. Some areas may see stronger appreciation, while others may experience flat or slightly softer pricing. Local expertise is essential to understanding what applies in your specific area.
As Realtor.com notes, a slower pace of appreciation supports a healthier balance between buyers and sellers, creating steadier conditions across the market.
For buyers: More moderate price growth brings predictability and makes long-term planning easier.
For sellers: A balanced pace of appreciation protects equity while supporting consistent demand.
More Homes Are Expected to Change Hands in 2026
When mortgage rates stabilize, inventory improves, and prices grow at a manageable pace, affordability naturally improves. That combination is why economists expect more homes to sell in 2026 than in the past two years.
Forecasts from Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Association of Realtors all point to an increase in total home sales next year. According to Zillow’s Chief Economist, buyers are benefiting from improved affordability and expanded inventory, while sellers are seeing steadier demand and price stability.
This balance gives both sides of the transaction more breathing room and confidence to move forward.
Bottom Line
Affordability rarely improves overnight, but multiple trends are now working together in a positive direction. In 2026, buyers and sellers alike should experience a market defined by greater balance, improved predictability, and renewed opportunity.
If you are considering a move in the Tampa Bay area, having clear, local guidance matters more than ever. The team at Rocks Realty is here to help you understand how these national trends translate into real opportunities in your neighborhood and to create a strategy that fits your goals.
Annie & Kevin Rocks | Rocks Realty
Annie: 727-777-3264
Kevin: 727-389-6453
